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JTD Advisory Ltd. specializes in aviation and logistics, providing expert business advisory services, grounded in extensive commercial and management experience. We deliver tailored solutions for clients globally.
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Based in the UK, our team combines deep industry knowledge with practical expertise to help businesses thrive in the aviation and logistics sectors, ensuring sustainable growth and operational excellence.
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JTD Airfreight Intelligence Insights
Connecting cargo, capital, and trade policy every week
JTD AIRFREIGHT INTELLIGENCE
LINKEDIN POST | ISSUE #3 | WEEK OF 26 APRIL 2026
David Kerr | Founder, JTD Advisory Ltd.
The ceasefire moved sentiment. It did not move rates. The BAI00 is now +23.1% year-on-year.
Gulf carrier capacity has recovered from its acute shock lows — Emirates is back to roughly 70% of pre-conflict levels, Etihad to 65%, Qatar Airways to 45%. Kuwait remains closed. Bahrain remains suspended. Lufthansa has Dubai on hold through May and most Middle East destinations through October.
South Asia to Europe has eased from $5.15/kg to $5.00/kg — still 93% above pre-conflict. Southeast Asia to Europe is down 9% from its peak and still 43% above where it was. The market is not correcting. It is grinding lower from extreme levels while a new cost floor forms underneath.
A case in point - Korean Air surcharge at Level 33. Effective 1 May, this is the highest fuel surcharge tier since the system was introduced in 2016. It has never been reached before. The benchmark behind it is Singapore MOPS jet fuel at $214.71 per barrel. Fuel has eased roughly 12% since the start of April. It remains approximately double pre-conflict levels.
This matters beyond Korean Air. It is a sector-wide cost re-rating signal. Even when the Gulf fully reopens, airline operating costs have reset materially. The rate environment will take longer to normalise than the geopolitical situation that triggered it.
Alongside this: Section 122 expires 24 July (Congress must act to extend), Section 232 pharma tariffs arrive 31 July, and the EU de minimis EUR 3 flat duty lands 1 July. Three simultaneous policy inflection points for air cargo trade lanes in one 30-day window.
The conflict created the shock. The cost structure is creating the floor. Two different analytical frameworks required. Are operators and capital allocators in this market treating them as one problem or two?
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