Business Advisory Services for Aviation & Logistics
Joining the dots to provide strategic and commercial insights in aviation and logistics sectors, globally.
Insights
Tailored aviation strategies for your business.
Solutions and insights for global business and trade
Management Support and Advice
Solutions
Management Expertise
Business Advisory Services for Aviation & Logistics
Joining the dots to provide strategic and commercial insights in aviation and logistics sectors, globally.
Insights
Tailored aviation strategies for your business.
Solutions and insights for global business and trade
Management Support and Advice
Solutions
Management Expertise
Business Advisory Services for Aviation & Logistics
Joining the dots to provide strategic and commercial insights in aviation and logistics sectors, globally.
Insights
Tailored aviation strategies for your business.
Solutions and insights for global business and trade
Management Support and Advice
Solutions
Management Expertise
Business Advisory Services for Aviation & Logistics
Joining the dots to provide strategic and commercial insights in aviation and logistics sectors, globally.
Insights
Tailored aviation strategies for your business.
Solutions and insights for global business and trade
Management Support and Advice
Solutions
Management Expertise
Business Advisory Services for Aviation & Logistics
Joining the dots to provide strategic and commercial insights in aviation and logistics sectors, globally.
Insights
Tailored aviation strategies for your business.
Solutions and insights for global business and trade
Management Support and Advice
Solutions
Management Expertise
Expert Business Advisory in Aviation
JTD Advisory Ltd. specializes in aviation and logistics, providing expert business advisory services, grounded in extensive commercial and management experience. We deliver tailored solutions for clients globally.
Your Trusted Business Partner...
Navigating the Challenges of today and the future...
Based in the UK, our team combines deep industry knowledge with practical expertise to help businesses thrive in the aviation and logistics sectors, ensuring sustainable growth and operational excellence.
Our Projects
Expertise in aviation and logistics for global business solutions.
Delivering strategic solutions for aviation industry challenges and opportunities
Optimizing supply chains and go to market strategies for enhanced operational and commercial effectiveness
JTD Airfreight Intelligence Insights
Connecting cargo, capital, and trade policy every week
JTD AIRFREIGHT INTELLIGENCE
ISSUE #11 | WEEK OF 23 JUN 2026
David Kerr | Founder, JTD Advisory Ltd.
The MOU is signed. The EASA Do Not Operate bulletin expires tomorrow. Those two facts are on different timelines — and the rate data this week confirms the market knows the difference.
The US-Iran MOU was signed on 18 June. Hormuz reopened. Oil transits resumed within 24 hours. For maritime markets, the headline holds. For aviation, the operational picture is more constrained. As of this morning, EASA CZIB 2026-03-R12 — Do Not Operate for Iran, Iraq, and Lebanon at all flight levels — remains in force. It expires 24 June. No European carrier has issued a formal reinstatement timeline. British Airways' planned 1 July partial Dubai restart, at one daily flight versus the pre-conflict three, is explicitly conditional on tomorrow's EASA renewal decision.
Why the rate data matters more than the political narrative: BAI00 closed the week to 15 June at +34.6% YoY, up +1.3% WoW. The global floor moved higher, not lower, in the week the MOU was announced. BAI20 Frankfurt surged +6.6% WoW. BAI30 Hong Kong sits at +42.2% YoY — the highest in the TAC basket. WorldACD Week 24 shows global chargeable weight at +10% YoY and the Asia-to-USA spot rate extending a consecutive weekly +1% WoW run now in its fifth week from the date of the US-China truce announcement in May. The market is pricing the operational, not the political.
BAI40 Heathrow compressed sharply in YoY terms — from +40.0% to +16.9% in one week. This is worth reading carefully. The prior +40.0% was elevated by de minimis front-load spike noise. The +16.9% that is left reflects MOU risk-premium easing on forward bookings. The structural drivers — Tehran FIR payload penalty on Asia-Europe trunk routes, non-GCC belly capacity absent for four more months at minimum — remain fully intact. The LHR story has not resolved; it has had its risk premium separated from its structural premium for the first time.
The EU de minimis cliff is 8 days away, as my industry colleague @Derek Lossing outlines this week. Liège Q1 cargo volumes +16% YoY confirm the diversion is already advanced. Transpacific front-loading is building week by week toward the 10 November US-China tariff deadline. These clocks do not pause while diplomats work through the 60-day nuclear negotiation window that opened on 18 June.
For cargo operators and shippers: are you distinguishing between risk-premium easing (which the MOU delivers) and structural capacity restoration (which requires a multi-step NOTAM-insurance-approval sequence that takes months)? The two are frequently conflated — and conflating them leads to the wrong Q3 and Q4 positioning decisions.
#Airfreight #AirCargo #SupplyChain #Logistics #CargoStrategy #Aviation #FreightForwarding #JTDAdvisory #AviationStrategy #TradePolicy