Business Advisory Services for Aviation & Logistics
Joining the dots to provide strategic and commercial insights in aviation and logistics sectors, globally.
Insights
Tailored aviation strategies for your business.
Solutions and insights for global business and trade
Management Support and Advice
Solutions
Management Expertise
Business Advisory Services for Aviation & Logistics
Joining the dots to provide strategic and commercial insights in aviation and logistics sectors, globally.
Insights
Tailored aviation strategies for your business.
Solutions and insights for global business and trade
Management Support and Advice
Solutions
Management Expertise
Business Advisory Services for Aviation & Logistics
Joining the dots to provide strategic and commercial insights in aviation and logistics sectors, globally.
Insights
Tailored aviation strategies for your business.
Solutions and insights for global business and trade
Management Support and Advice
Solutions
Management Expertise
Business Advisory Services for Aviation & Logistics
Joining the dots to provide strategic and commercial insights in aviation and logistics sectors, globally.
Insights
Tailored aviation strategies for your business.
Solutions and insights for global business and trade
Management Support and Advice
Solutions
Management Expertise
Business Advisory Services for Aviation & Logistics
Joining the dots to provide strategic and commercial insights in aviation and logistics sectors, globally.
Insights
Tailored aviation strategies for your business.
Solutions and insights for global business and trade
Management Support and Advice
Solutions
Management Expertise
Expert Business Advisory in Aviation
JTD Advisory Ltd. specializes in aviation and logistics, providing expert business advisory services, grounded in extensive commercial and management experience. We deliver tailored solutions for clients globally.
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Based in the UK, our team combines deep industry knowledge with practical expertise to help businesses thrive in the aviation and logistics sectors, ensuring sustainable growth and operational excellence.
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Expertise in aviation and logistics for global business solutions.
Delivering strategic solutions for aviation industry challenges and opportunities
Optimizing supply chains and go to market strategies for enhanced operational and commercial effectiveness
JTD Airfreight Intelligence Insights
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JTD AIRFREIGHT INTELLIGENCE
LINKEDIN POST | ISSUE #10 | WEEK OF 16 JUN 2026
David Kerr | Founder, JTD Advisory Ltd.
The MOU was announced on Sunday. Not a single aviation NOTAM has been withdrawn. The market understood the difference. Rates did not fall.
On 15 June, Trump posted on Truth Social that the deal with Iran is "now complete." A signing ceremony is scheduled for 19 June in Geneva. The Strait of Hormuz reopens on signing. After more than three months of conflict that removed non-GCC operators from Gulf routes and restructured Asia-Europe and South Asia air freight trade lanes, a political framework has arrived.
Why it matters — and what it does not change: Political frameworks and operational restoration are on different timelines. France renewed its Tehran FIR advisory to 24 June. Germany's runs to 3 September. The EASA safety information bulletin, renewed 10 June, is valid to 24 June. That renewal date is the first institutional decision point. Non-GCC carriers do not return because a deal was announced. They return when safety departments clear the route, insurers revise war-risk premiums, and regulators withdraw the NOTAM. IATA has estimated that full restoration of pre-conflict service levels takes one to two months after genuine security normalisation. That clock starts on 19 June at the earliest — and only if the signing holds.
The rate data for the week to 8 June — the last clean read before the announcement — shows the floor is intact. BAI00 closed flat at +33.4% YoY. BAI40 Heathrow corrected -18.8% WoW from the prior week's spike, but remains +40.0% YoY. The structural premium on UK outbound has not been resolved. The China-UK capacity gap left by European Cargo's administration — six A340-600Fs parked, no replacement fleet — is still open. The EU de minimis cliff falls in 15 days. The US-China tariff suspension expires in 147 days. None of these are modified by what was announced in Geneva.
Operators and shippers who revise H2 capacity positions on the basis of the MOU announcement alone are pricing the political, not the operational. The central case for Q4 tightness has not changed. The timeline for structural relief has shifted from "uncertain" to "possible in Q3" — and that is a meaningful distinction. It is not a reason to release capacity already secured.
For freight practitioners: how are you adjusting your Q3 capacity cover in light of a ceasefire that is politically announced but operationally unconfirmed?
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