Expert Business Advisory in Aviation

JTD Advisory Ltd. specializes in aviation and logistics, providing expert business advisory services, grounded in extensive commercial and management experience. We deliver tailored solutions for clients globally.

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Based in the UK, our team combines deep industry knowledge with practical expertise to help businesses thrive in the aviation and logistics sectors, ensuring sustainable growth and operational excellence.

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Expertise in aviation and logistics for global business solutions.

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JTD Airfreight Intelligence Insights

Connecting cargo, capital, and trade policy every week

JTD AIRFREIGHT INTELLIGENCE

LINKEDIN POST | ISSUE #2 | WEEK OF 21 APRIL 2026

David Kerr | Founder, JTD Advisory Ltd.

The ceasefire was announced. The rates did not fall.

Gulf air cargo capacity is still at 57% of pre-conflict levels. Jet fuel remains 70% above where it was on 27 February. South Asia to Europe spot rates are double their pre-war level at $5.15/kg. And carriers have said clearly: they are in no rush to lower rates while the geopolitical situation remains uncertain.

This is not rate gouging. It is rational market behaviour in a market where the cost floor has structurally shifted.

Beneath the conflict, the February IATA data tells a different story: CTK up 11.2% year-on-year — the strongest reading in over a year. Africa-Asia at +61.9% for the eighth consecutive month. Global manufacturing PMI at its highest since December 2021. The underlying demand is genuinely strong.

Two readings. Two different strategic responses required. The risk is treating them as one.

And then there is the pharmaceutical corridor. The US announced a 100% Section 232 tariff on patented drugs effective 31 July — landing simultaneously on the India-US East Coast lane that was already carrying the highest conflict-driven rate surges in the market. Capacity shortage plus doubled surcharges plus a 100% tariff threshold on the same corridor at the same time is not a procurement problem. It is a network redesign trigger.

For operators and capital allocators: which of these two signals is actually driving your decisions this quarter — and are you certain you have disaggregated them correctly?

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